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Drought nothing compared to what may be coming


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By Darryl Fears, Washington Post

The long and severe drought in the U.S. Southwest pales in comparison with what’s coming: a “megadrought” that will grip that region and the central plains later this century and probably stay there for decades, a new study says.

Thirty-five years from now, if the current pace of climate change continues unabated, those areas of the country will experience a weather shift that will linger for as long as three decades, according to the study, released Thursday.

Researchers from NASA and Cornell and Columbia universities warned of major water shortages and conditions that dry out vegetation, which can lead to monster wildfires in southern Arizona and parts of California.

“We really need to start thinking in longer-term horizons about how we’re going to manage it,” said Toby R. Ault, an assistant professor in the department of Earth and atmospheric sciences at Cornell, one of the co-authors. “This is a slow-moving natural hazard that humans are used to dealing with and used to managing.”

Megadroughts are sustained periods of sparse precipitation and significant loss of soil moisture that span generations, about 10 times as long as a normal three-year drought.

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Comments (57)
  1. ?!? says - Posted: February 13, 2015

    Climate change, blah, megadrought, blah, researchers, blah, scientists, blah. This is pure BS speculation. When we can’t even get accurate forecasts for next week, how the **** do they think they can forecast the weather 50 years from now? There have been so many incorrect predictions like this, it is a joke. Remember 5 months ago when everyone was saying there would be an “El Nino” and the drought would be over? Ha! Not saying that a megadrought couldn’t happen, but I find it hard to take these people seriously.

  2. Tahoser says - Posted: February 13, 2015

    so, an article written by Darryl Fears is supposed to make me fear a megadrought? I put that in the same category as when we have a little rain now it’s called
    “Stormageddon” by all the weather folks!! Bottom line is you’ll need to adapt–or move to somewhere with more rain/snow

  3. Mike Hunt says - Posted: February 13, 2015

    Mega drought….Mega douche….Go back and check the records. 1924-31 (a time I was not alive), there was a far worse drought in CA and NV than we are experiencing now. Historically bad. Do not be so quick to forecast out so far in the future. The far left has a political agenda with climate change. Do not just buy into it. Do your own research.

  4. fromform says - Posted: February 13, 2015

    hey mike: i just consulted with my dad, who was around during that time period. he said that drought was nothing compared to this one. he also said he knew your mom.

  5. ?!? says - Posted: February 13, 2015

    fromfrom: How old is your dad?

  6. Old Long Skiis says - Posted: February 13, 2015

    In the 60 degree range in February? In Tahoe? No snow on the ground at lake level along with a shrinking lake and the reservoirs downstream rapidly dwindling? Dry fields for crops and livestock. Extreme water conservation will be the rule of the day. Gonna be a rough summer. High in fire danger and low on water.
    Must be Obama’s fault and Gov. Browns…right conservatives?
    Take care and conserve water in any way you can. OLS

  7. rock4tahoe says - Posted: February 13, 2015

    ? says, “Scientist blah.” This is the latest climate change “denier” argument? Cant’ take Scientists, Doctors, Physicists, Geologists, Mathematicians or anybody that actually studies seriously… Well, you can’t fix ignorant.

  8. Tahoebluewire says - Posted: February 13, 2015

    I agree with ?!?.

    There is evidence of mega droughts. True. Climate change is due to mans emissions. Eh.. Maybe maybe not. Not enough data. A mega drought prediction for 50 years from now? Laughable. Science cannot predict the weather season to season. If you all remember the geologic timeline represented as a meter. 1 mm= 10 million years etc. humans have been around less than 1mm, Dino’s less than 1mm… You get the picture? Science is the search for truth but predicting the future is slippery slope.

  9. ?!? says - Posted: February 13, 2015

    rock: I was merely pointing out the fact that these “scientists” are constantly making outlandish predictions, which almost never come true.

    Not everything that comes from “scientists” is real.
    There are many scientists, doctors, physicists, geologists, and mathematicians that are just trying to push their own agendas. I take serious science seriously, not liberal propaganda.

    P.S. I was imitating your “blah x” line that you use when someone posts something you don’t agree with.

  10. rock4tahoe says - Posted: February 13, 2015

    TahoeBlue. So just ignore people like Stephen Hawking, the Scientist that discovered that Black Holes bleed energy over vast amounts of time (it’s called Hawking Radiation) and believe Non-Scientists… why? Would you argue with a doctor that told you had a fever too? Thousands of doctors?

    Mr. Hawking said in 2006, “One of the most serious consequences of our actions is global warming brought about by rising levels of CO2 from the burning of fossil fuels. The danger is that the temperature increase may become self-sustaining, if it hasn’t done so already. Drought and deforestation are reducing the amount of carbon dioxide recycled into the atmosphere and the warming of the seas may trigger the release of large quantities of carbon dioxide trapped on the ocean floor. In addition the melting of the Arctic and Antarctic ice sheets will reduce the amount of solar energy reflected back into space and so increase the temperature further. We don’t know where global warming will stop but the worst case scenario is that the earth will become like its sister planet Venus, with a temperature of 250 degrees C and rain sulphuric acid. The human race could not survive in those conditions.”

    Mr. Hawking was responding to another climate denier and life insurance salesman… Senator Inhofe of Oklahoma who claimed global warming was a hoax.

    So, we are to believe a life insurance salesman, Inhofe, over the Genius, the Scientist, the Physicist, the Cosmologist, Mr. Hawking? Again, why?

    Jules Verne, who had a passion for Science, predicted nuclear powered submarines and a manned mission to the Moon in the 1860’s, decades before they became reality.

    Some picture ‘eh?

    It would seem the only thing “laughable” and “slippery” is your argument.

  11. rock4tahoe says - Posted: February 13, 2015

    ? You really want to bad mouth Scientists and Scientific predictions like: Atomic Bombs, missions to the Moon, vaccines, Black Holes, the Speed of Sound, the Speed of the expanding Universe, DNA, Evolution, the Speed of Light, Comets, Meteors, the collision of the Andromeda Galaxy and the Milky Way Galaxy billions of year from now? You mean those sort of predictions you disagree with too?

    And who is pushing the Fossil Fuel Agenda again? Salespeople for the Fossil Fuel Industry. They are the ones you want to listen.

    Scientists have children and grandchildren too you know.

    ps. I know you stole my idea but it does not help your ignorant argument.

  12. ?!? says - Posted: February 13, 2015

    “Space travel is bunk.” — Sir Harold Spencer Jones, Astronomer Royal of the UK, 1957
    “There is not the slightest indication that nuclear energy will ever be obtainable. It would mean that the atom would have to be shattered at will.” — Albert Einstein, 1932
    “I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.” — Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943
    “The earth’s crust does not move”- 19th through early 20th century accepted geological science.
    “Radio has no future. Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible. X-rays will prove to be a hoax.” — William Thomson, Lord Kelvin, British scientist, 1899.

    rocks4brains: I suggest that you start looking at REAL HARD FACTS, instead of listening to the wild speculations of Mr. Hawking. You can’t rely on the prestige of the person presenting the idea, you have to look at their evidence. EINSTEIN said that we would never have nuclear power, so it must be a hoax right?

    “melting of Arctic and Antarctic ice sheets” Actually, Antarctic ice sheets are thickening, much to the utter surprise and dismay of the climate change folks!
    There is tons of evidence that Hawking is a nut job. If you analyze the things he says, they are full of contradictions.

    Hawking may seem like a high and mighty scientist on the surface, but if you dig a little deeper, you will see that he is just making up lies that sound good to the lemmings like you who believe them.

  13. ?!? says - Posted: February 13, 2015

    rocks4brains: You act like I don’t believe anything from scientists. The only things on your list that I don’t agree with are evolution and the speed of the expanding of the universe. Evolution is clearly BS. If you believe that, you believe that you came from a rock. If evolution is false, then there most likely wasn’t a big bang, so the universe probably isn’t expanding.
    I stole your idea, and it doesn’t help your ignorant arguments either.
    I don’t listen to salespeople in the fossil fuel industry because they are crooks. I look at COLD HARD FACTS.

  14. nature bats last says - Posted: February 13, 2015

    The NASA report has an international stage and is respected by world class scientists, the whiners and finger pointers above have this blog. I know who I would believe……

  15. rock4tahoe says - Posted: February 13, 2015

    ? Keep throwing insults at Science, that is all you are good for.

    Harold Spencer Jones graduated from Jesus College and probably did not know how to calculate escape velocity.

    Einstein did not know you could split an atom in 1932. The word atom comes from the word “atomos” or undivided. Later he said to FDR, “Some recent work by E. Fermi and L. Szilard, which has been communicated to me in manuscript, leads me to expect that the element uranium may be turned into a new and important source of energy in the immediate future.”

    Thomas Watson was a bookkeeper, not a Scientist.

    Orville and Wilbur proved Kelvin was in error and that it was mathematically possible to fly via machine eight years after the quote.

    Actually, recent calculations by Scientists show the Milky Way is moving with the Universe and is expanding at a great rate of speed; about 2.1 million kph or 1.3 million mph.

    Evolution is a hoax and probably no Big Bang. That’s it, insults and probably is all you have?

    And how old is the Earth ?

    And you want to argue with Stephen Hawking now? You are both narcissistic and ignorant. LOL!

  16. ?!? says - Posted: February 13, 2015

    rocks4brains: You completely missed the point of my post. Most these people were prestigious and made these predictions. Since they were prestigious, everyone believed what they said. They were later proven wrong. My point is, maybe your Stephen Hawking is a prestigious person too and his claims are incorrect, but you believe them because he is prestigious. I am not insulting science. I am just not a lemming like you, who believes everything they hear. Everyone needs a healthy level of skepticism.
    Don’t like my claims about evolution? I will gladly debate with you about it on this blog right now, because I am positive that you will lose, since there are no grounds to your claims, and you are an ignorant fool.
    You can start by watching this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q8DDIe_2cHM
    I would gladly argue with Stephen Hawking as well, because he is wrong. MIGHT DOES NOT MAKE RIGHT!
    At least I actually have something to say. All you are doing is picking on my posts because you have nothing to say, or, if you do, you would instantly be cut down if you said it.
    Nature, I won’t bother responding to your comments, because you have proven you don’t have the mental capacity to comprehend such serious issues.

  17. duke of prunes says - Posted: February 13, 2015

    Have you ever noticed that people who deny evolution are a little less… evolved?
    Punctuation: You are throwing out a lot of red herrings and cherry picking. Science is a philosophy. Skepticism is built in to hypothesis testing.

    “This is pure BS speculation. When we can’t even get accurate forecasts for next week, how the **** do they think they can forecast the weather 50 years from now?”
    Oh dear, here we go again. Before we more on here… define climate, try using a number and unit of time.

    “Do your own research.”
    Mike, please post some research.

  18. nature bats last says - Posted: February 13, 2015

    ?!? HAHA, Im no lemming im just not an idiot like you with your stage being this blog. I actually have a masters degree in the sciences and I know for a fact that the NASA scientists or Stephen Hawkings would kick your arse in any battle of the facts. I, on the other hand, will choose to not waste any more time with
    your ilk, you are a SPECK of scat dust in the giant scheme of things. Good luck with your audience…

  19. rock4tahoe says - Posted: February 13, 2015

    ? Oh, a debate on Evolution! Excellent. You proposed the debate, you go first. How did life begin ?

  20. Dogula says - Posted: February 13, 2015

    So, if you are so intelligent and so capable, and have a master’s degree, why are you on disability instead of being a productive citizen?

  21. ?!? says - Posted: February 13, 2015

    “as we may hope, even than the Caucasian, and some ape as low as the baboon, instead of as now between the Negro or Australian and the gorilla.” – Charles Darwin
    According to one of the originators of this theory, evolution is racism.

    Climate: The weather conditions prevailing in an area in general or over a long period.
    Climate is not defined using a number and a unit of time.
    Skepticism is not built into hypothesis testing when you decide that your hypothesis is correct before you test it then eliminate all the data that doesn’t support your hypothesis. Scientists today are trying to prove that climate change is correct, instead of trying to find out if it is actually happening.

    I am not throwing out red herrings. You, nature, and rock, however, are guilty of argumentum ad hominem and argumentum ad baculum. You might take a look in the mirror before you start throwing out accusations. It was actually Rock who changed the subject to climate change. I didn’t say anything about it in my first post.

    Nature: Actually, you are a lemming. You seem to listen to what your divine scientists at NASA and Stephen Hawking say and never question a word of it. Stephen Hawking and NASA obviously have agendas, you can’t debate that. What is your worthless master’s degree in?

  22. ?!? says - Posted: February 13, 2015

    Rock: OK. I’m always open to a civil debate. Obviously, if we assume evolution isn’t correct, then the only other way that life could have begun is if it was created by an intelligent, supernatural being. You next! How do you think life began?

  23. reloman says - Posted: February 13, 2015

    excuse me but you are all getting excited over this article when in the article it states it may never happen, this is called a disclaimer. They are just saying it may. I remember in the 70s scientist were sayong that within 20 years California would drop into the ocean. We are learning new things every day, new therories are thought up daily and old ones are disproved as we learn more. The really unevolved ones are the ones that feel that science is fact and unmoving, its not facts as we know them change as as science changes and moves with new knoledge, one guy who used to post under the name of caso something is like this, believes theories are fact and never change. Not really as much of a scienist as he would have us beieve.

  24. ?!? says - Posted: February 13, 2015

    Reloman: A disclaimer? They can’t say for certain that this is going to happen, because if it doesn’t, they look like fools. What they are saying is that they think it is going to happen.

  25. rock4tahoe says - Posted: February 13, 2015

    Not so fast ?

    1. ?’s first comment says “Climate change, blah, megadrought, blah, researchers, blah, scientists, blah. This is pure BS speculation.” So, your tangential argument that I changed the subject to climate change is obviously false.

    2. ? says ” the only other way that life could have begun is if it was created by an intelligent, supernatural being.”

    How ludicrous.

    a. We have the Daubert standard rule of evidence from the United States Supreme Court which says that scientific expert testimony must be based from “scientific knowledge.”

    b. The United States Supreme Court ruled that teaching creation science was unconstitutional in 1987. In short, intelligent design is a “religious” teaching and not legitimate scientific research.

    Where is your falsifiable (testable) evidence of spontaneous generation of life by an alien being and how was it peer reviewed and verified?

  26. rock4tahoe says - Posted: February 13, 2015

    Relo. What Scientist(s) said California was going to drop into the ocean in 20 years? Are you sure it wasn’t a song instead of a Scientist?

  27. ?!? says - Posted: February 13, 2015

    rock: I will attempt to respond to your comment point by point.

    1. This one is my bad. I should have read the previous comments more carefully. However, you were the one that accused me of being a denier, among other thing. I was quoting from the article in my comment. My apologies.

    2. Explain how this is ludicrous, then tell me what actually happened.

    a. “Scientific expert testimony must be based from ‘scientific knowledge.'” One can conclude from common sense that it is highly unlikely that life “spontaneously generated” from “chemical soup.” Furthermore, there is plenty of evidence that evolution is false. Examine the following points:

    If it were a real process, evolution should still be occurring, and there should be many “transitional” forms that we could observe. What we see instead, of course, is an array of distinct “kinds” of plants and animals with many varieties within each kind, but with very clear and — apparently — unbridgeable gaps between the kinds. That is, for example, there are many varieties of dogs and many varieties of cats, but no “dats” or “cogs.”
    Evolutionary geneticists have often experimented on fruit flies and other rapidly reproducing species to induce mutational changes hoping they would lead to new and better species, but these have all failed to accomplish their goal. No truly new species has ever been produced, let alone a new “basic kind.”

    Evolutionists commonly answer the above criticism by claiming that evolution goes too slowly for us to see it happening today. They used to claim that the real evidence for evolution was in the fossil record of the past, but the fact is that the billions of known fossils do not include a single unequivocal transitional form with transitional structures in the process of evolving. The entire history of evolution from the evolution of life from non-life to the evolution of vertebrates from invertebrates to the evolution of man from the ape is strikingly devoid of intermediates: the links are all missing in the fossil record, just as they are in the present world.
    Other gaps are abundant, with no real transitional series anywhere. A very bitter opponent of creation science, paleontologist, Niles Eldredge, has acknowledged that there is little, if any, evidence of evolutionary transitions in the fossil record. Instead, things remain the same!

    b. Again, Rock, ad baculum. Might does not make right. Just because the supreme court ruled something, doesn’t mean it is right. It is also interesting to note that the supreme court may have ruled this because of prejudice against the idea of a God existing. This goes against the Constitution, which says that the government will not interfere with any man’s religion. Therefore, one might conclude that this ruling is unconstitutional.

    I never said anything about spontaneous generation and aliens, I don’t know where you’re getting that from. I hold to my statement that if evolution is false, there must be a God or supernatural being, who created the universe and life.
    If you are interested in peer-reviewed science, show me peer-reviewed science that concludes that evolution must be real. I think you will have a very difficult time.

  28. ?!? says - Posted: February 13, 2015

    Rock: LOL. definitely wasn’t a real scientist. That’s a pretty outlandish prediction.

  29. rock4tahoe says - Posted: February 13, 2015

    ? a. Microevolution has been upheld by tests in laboratories with cells, plants, worms, fruit flies and birds.

    Quick example. Look no further then the common Dog, Canis lupus familiaris, which descended from, Canis lupus or Wolf. The Wolf was genetically engineered by humans to look like a Pug (and other breeds) in short time.

    Paleontologists are finding transitional intermediates in Hominids/humans, Aves/birds, Equus/horses, Cetacea/whales and more in the fossil records all the time.

    Molecular Biology proves that all organism share most of the same DNA and RNA (genes) that started with a common descent some 3.5 Billion years ago.

    I could find no reference that Niles Eldredge acknowledges anything other then evolutionary descent takes place in “fits and starts” separated by long periods of stability or stasis.

    b. The Courts deal with DNA testing all the time; DNA testing is falsifiable (tested and peer reviewed.)

    Again. Can you provide us with an example of spontaneous generation of life. Otherwise your statement(s) are simply religious opinion; not fact or testable.

  30. ?!? says - Posted: February 13, 2015

    Rock:
    a. I do not deny that microevolution is real. There is a lot of variety in plants and animals. The problem is that there are bounds on microevolution. You can’t just get anything that you want with this process.
    Example: Pugs are descendants of wolves but at first glance, they look quite a bit different. However, they still share most of the same DNA and basic characteristics. Microevolution made the pug from the wolf, but microevolution cannot make a cat from a wolf, because it is a completely different species. Although microevolution can cause variation inside species, no one has ever, to my knowledge, produced a completely new species from one old one, which is what evolution believers claim happened.

    “Paleontologists are finding transitional intermediates in Hominids/humans, Aves/birds, Equus/horses, Cetacea/Whales and more in fossil records all the time.” Paleontologists find thousands of fossils, and when they get one that is even remotely close to something that might be the “missing link” they proudly declare that they have proved evolution is real. There are thousands of missing links just between apes and men. Could you post a link to these missing links that paleontologists are finding? To my knowledge, none of them do anything to prove that evolution is real.

    “Molecular Biology proves that all organism share most of the same DNA and RNA” Um, duh. You share 70% of your DNA with a banana. Common descent? Maybe not. I can find no evidence that shows this.

    “The Courts deal with DNA testing all the time” Of course! But DNA testing hasn’t proved that evolution is true! If it has, show me where!

    Actually, you are the one that believes in spontaneous generation of life, right? You believe that life somehow “Spontaneously generated from chemical soup” billions of years ago, right? I believe that a creator made the universe and initiated life.
    Evolution is a religious opinion as well. There is a lot of science and common sense saying it must be false. You want an example of spontaneous generation of life? Well unfortunately, no one’s got that, not even the evolutionists who believe in it.

  31. David DeWitt says - Posted: February 14, 2015

    Tell the folks on the east coast about dry weather–what a bunch of bs there is on this blog.

  32. fromform says - Posted: February 14, 2015

    !?!, it’s obvious that you do not understand the concept which frames the theory of evolution, and further, the rigor of the science that underlies it. i suggest that you familiarize yourself with the process of scientific method; perhaps you will then grok that what you consider the ‘failure’ built into that process is actually its fundamental strength. my guess is that you won’t explore any of this and will continue to know what you know. sad.

  33. Ryan Payne says - Posted: February 14, 2015

    The skiing sucks, but it sure is great disc golf weather!

  34. ?!? says - Posted: February 14, 2015

    fromfrom: I think you’re the one that doesn’t get it. You are telling me that I don’t understand, and I’m stupid, and I don’t get it. “familiarize ourself with the process of the scientific method” OK. It goes like this: Make observations, form a hypothesis to explain your observations, collect data that test the hypothesis, hypothesis becomes a theory, continue to test the theory with generations of data, if the data are consistent with the theory, the theory becomes a law. If not, revise your hypothesis and repeat the process.
    Please explain how the “failure” built into the process is actually it’s fundamental strength. Then, show me the rigor of science that underlies it. At first glance, this theory seems very good, but these “scientists” are simply eliminating the data that doesn’t support their theory, and since the average person is too lazy to research it, he will believe their craziness.
    In a nutshell, the hypothesis of evolution says that billions of years ago, simple life forms sprang up from chemicals on the earth (This is called abiogenesis, and NO ONE HAS EVER DONE THIS OR SHOWN THAT IT IS POSSIBLE!). Then, over billions of years, these simple life forms eventually evolved into the modern day plants and animals we have. Do you evolutionists realize how absurd this sounds to normal people who haven’t been brainwashed?

    I think there are many people who don’t want to believe in a God, because, they reason, if there is one, then they are held accountable for their actions, something which they don’t like. As a result they choose to believe evolution, because it doesn’t require the existence of God. If you want to be able to do whatever without being held accountable, fine, but I suggest you study both theories more carefully, as I have done, and do some soul searching to find out if the real reason you believe evolution is a religious bias.

  35. rock4tahoe says - Posted: February 14, 2015

    Well ?, this game is over. You can’t pick and choose the Science you want ?, just like you can’t pick and choose what Calculus, Mathematics, Physics, Biology, Micro Biology, Astronomy, Chemistry, Cellular Biology you want.

    You started this thread by say “Climate change, blah, megadrought, blah, researchers, blah, scientists, blah. This is pure BS speculation” with nothing but opinion to back it up except to belittle people like Stephen Hawking with a casual “he is incorrect.”

    Climate Change is measurable, like Gravity is measurable, like CO2 levels in the atmosphere are measurable, like rising Ocean levels are measurable, like the retreat of Glaciers is measurable, like the Speed of Light is measurable, like the explosive equivalent of a Hydrogen bomb is measurable, like the color spectrum of distant Stars are measurable, like DNA similarities are measurable, like the rate of Genetic Mutation in new strains of Streptococcus are measurable, like radioactive decay is measurable and yes like Evolution is measurable.

    And your claim that “life forms sprang up from chemicals on the earth… has never been done or shown” simply ignores ignores current Chemical research with RNA and DNA.

    You claim that “scientists are simply eliminating the data that doesn’t support their theory, yet give nothing to support your argument of “creation by your God” except to say “I believe that a creator made the universe and initiated life” which is nothing more than ignorant banter.

    Then to finish your opinion with “lazy,” “craziness,” “normal people who haven’t been brainwashed?” You simply don’t win the debate with those sort of comments.

    I know what you are going through, believe it or not, I was raised Southern Baptist and Presbyterian with a little Catholic thrown in. I simply find Religion now to be a relic of the past.

    Checkmate.

  36. fromform says - Posted: February 14, 2015

    !?!…your reference elevating ‘belief in god’ to theory level demonstrates precisely my point. further, your parroting of a quasi-accurate account of scientific method, amplified by your inherent inability to understand the value of failure in science, establishes with resound that you are not to be taken seriously.

  37. ?!? says - Posted: February 14, 2015

    Hoho, the greatest men may make mistakes!
    Checkmate? Not so fast!

    “You can’t pick and choose the science you want” Where did I do that? You, on the other hand, have avoided discussing all my main points.

    “Climate change, blah, megadrought, blah, researchers, blah, scientists, blah. This is pure BS speculation” I was referring to ONLY this article when I said this. The study in this article is predicting a megadrought in the next 50 years, but it provides absolutely no evidence to back up this claim, short of reciting the good ol’ climate change mantra.

    I say Stephen Hawking is incorrect? Well just read his books and articles! He claims that the universe created itself out of nothing! Tell me Mr. Hawking, how did nothing create something out of nothing? That’s against the laws of physics. This seems more like a mental illness than sound scientific data. “he is incorrect” keep in mind that you have done exactly the same thing several times in this debate. Also, please keep this discussion on topic, we are talking about evolution here, not climate change and science in general.

    “the rate of Genetic Mutation in new strains of Streptococcus are measurable” Um, duh again. This probably happens billions of times every day. My claim, however, is that microevolution of bacteria cannot produce humans and other animals. That is known as macroevolution. (macro)Evolution is measurable? Show me where! Give me one link to an article where scientists have seen MACROEVOLUTION occurring in a lab. Tell me what scientist has taken a bacterium and turned it into something other than a bacterium without genetic engineering by an intelligent being!

    “your claim that “life forms sprang up from chemicals on the earth… has never been done or shown” simply ignores ignores current Chemical research with RNA and DNA.” Please show me an example of life being generated from simple chemicals. Tons of research has been done on DNA and RNA, but no one has produced life from a pile of chemicals.

    “You claim that “scientists are simply eliminating the data that doesn’t support their theory, yet give nothing to support your argument of “creation by your God” except to say “I believe that a creator made the universe and initiated life” which is nothing more than ignorant banter.” Read my last few posts more carefully. I told you why I think evolution cannot happen, and logically showed that if evolution is false, the only other possibility is creation.

    You have made many claims and not provided any evidence to back them up.
    “Paleontologists are finding transitional intermediates in Hominids/humans, Aves/birds, Equus/horses, Cetacea/whales and more in the fossil records all the time.” I directly asked you for evidence to back this up, you failed to provide it.
    “Molecular Biology proves that all organism share most of the same DNA and RNA (genes) that started with a common descent some 3.5 Billion years ago.” You do not provide anything to support this claim.”

    “Evolution is measurable” Back this up.

    “Then to finish your opinion with “lazy,” “craziness,” “normal people who haven’t been brainwashed?” You simply don’t win the debate with those sort of comments.” Those comments were to from from, not you, they were not intended as part of this debate.

    “I know what you are going through, believe it or not, I was raised Southern Baptist and Presbyterian with a little Catholic thrown in. I simply find Religion now to be a relic of the past.” You know what I am going through? Exactly. My values, religion, and beliefs are under attack by a modernist atheist. That’s nothing new. I’m used to defending the truth! You were a christian? I must admit I’m surprised and it is sad that you’ve thrown away your morals and religion in favor of the modern world, but it doesn’t do jack for your argument.

    “Checkmate?” Claiming you won the debate doesn’t mean you won it.

    I believe that the vast majority of your arguments are characterized by a distinct lack of evidence, which clearly shows that there is not much supporting evidence for your beliefs. It is sad these days that the media, the schools, and Hollywood have convinced people that these lies are correct by eliminating the whole picture.

    Please reevaluate your sources and try to provide more evidence to back up your claims.

    In the mean time, anyone else have an opinion on this?

  38. copper says - Posted: February 14, 2015

    Kae, do you ever get the feeling that your creation may be sliding off a cliff?

  39. 26 In Tahoe says - Posted: February 14, 2015

    Had a conversation at work about El nino. To get back to climate change. I expressed the opinion that El Nino doesn’t mean much for Tahoe since we are on the edge of the effect. or rather in the middle. He took this as being a denial of the reality of El Nino, when all I was saying is that where we are it could go either way. Just because we did not see a lot of snow up here does not invalidate the model. Science is and always will be a work in progress. The tone of these posts address what we know now, what we discover remains to be seen. Would be fascinated to hear good information on the effect of El Nino on Tahoe.

  40. legal beagle says - Posted: February 14, 2015

    For everybody, especially you non science educated.
    It is the “THEORY OF EVOLUTION.” Get it.
    No one has yet created a new or developed
    a new multi-cell species. It is sciences best
    effort to explain how life progressed from virus like particles to human beings.
    Do you remember Haeckel dictum, to quote, “ontogeny recapitulates phylogeny.” You zoology majors just might.

  41. ?!? says - Posted: February 14, 2015

    Legal: My problem is that everyone seems to just assume that life progressed from virus like particles to human beings. In reality, we don’t know this. In fact, there seems to be a lot of evidence indicating that this is not true.

  42. legal beagle says - Posted: February 14, 2015

    ?!?,
    They just tried to burn Scott Walker during an interview in England last week by asking his views on evolution. He refused to answer as he should have and then he should have thrown it back at his liberal inquisitor that evolution is far, far from proven to anywhere near a scientific certainty.
    This liberal litmus test regarding evolution is political science at its best.
    Why do so many have no faith in religion but total faith in government? Sad, sad, sad.
    Sorry for running on.

  43. duke of prunes says - Posted: February 14, 2015

    “______ (insert any modern scientific idea) is far, far from **proven** to anywhere near a scientific certainty.”

    You obviously have an elementary understand of the scientific method.

    “there seems to be a lot of evidence indicating that this is not true.”
    List 3, or whatever source you have.
    I’ve read a lot of typical BS from creationists, moving the goal posts, red herring, holding up one overly simplified concept as being the keystone when it isn’t, using fancy words you don’t understand.
    Evolution has been observed in the modern era.
    Your logical model is not predictive, which means it is useless. When “theories” (which you don’t understand the use of in science) lead to more understanding they are legitimized.
    How old is the earth?

  44. duke of prunes says - Posted: February 14, 2015

    “OK. It goes like this: Make observations, form a hypothesis to explain your observations,”

    Wrong.

    “In a nutshell, the hypothesis of evolution says that billions of years ago, simple life forms sprang up from chemicals on the earth (This is called abiogenesis, and NO ONE HAS EVER DONE THIS OR SHOWN THAT IT IS POSSIBLE!). Then, over billions of years, these simple life forms eventually evolved into the modern day plants and animals we have. Do you evolutionists realize how absurd this sounds to normal people who haven’t been brainwashed?”

    Wrong.

    ” because, they reason, if there is one, then they are held accountable for their actions, something which they don’t like.”
    Strawman. And wrong.

    “Do you evolutionists realize how absurd this sounds to normal people who haven’t been brainwashed?”

    Let me guess, your god is the only god, because they told you they were the only true god. That’s step 1 in brainwashing.

    “but these “scientists” are simply eliminating the data that doesn’t support their theory, and since the average person is too lazy to research it, he will believe their craziness.”
    That is not how it works. That’s in your head, creating a false reality to fit your small minded worldview. Also strawman.

    ” Furthermore, there is plenty of evidence that evolution is false.”
    Sure there is, but none of it is legitimate. Here is what is going on with you: confirmation bias. Evolution and the possibilities enables by extremely large numbers is a threat to your fundamentalist worldview. You and standing on a pole that is getting more narrow every second, and are telling yourself everything is OK.

    “As a result they choose to believe evolution, because it doesn’t require the existence of God.”
    Strawman. And you have the idea completely backwards. God is an untestable, and unverifiable explanation. A logical model with no support and no predictive capability. The model is useless for this type of knowledge. If we are interested in logical models to understand the world around us, the god model is useless. If you think the god model works so well, form a creationist only rocket science program, put all of your great thinkers on the top of it, and try again and again when the project inevitably explode on the launch pad. It will be a very expensive way to get rid of ignorance, but every bit counts.
    Welcome to Costco, I love you.

  45. ?!? says - Posted: February 15, 2015

    Prune: Continue denying reality all you want! Your last two comments simply denied everything I said, you didn’t say why I was wrong or provide any supporting evidence.

    So you think God is untestable and unverifiable? Slow down.

    1. Something exists.

    That seems pretty simple, right? Can we all agree that this is true? Even the atheist will agree this is true. This seems to be undeniably true. Anyone who would say “nothing exists” would have to exist to in order to say that, in which case he would be defeating his own statement.

    My second premise is this:

    2. Nothing does not produce something.

    This statement is of course true as well. Think about it. It would be absurd to say that nothing could create or produce something.

    Nothing is no thing. No thing does not have the power to do any thing at all, does it?

    One of the oldest laws of science is Ex nihilo nihil fit (“Out of nothing, nothing comes”). Even David Hume one of the most zealous skeptics of Christianity ever, agreed to the truth of this second premise. He said, “I never asserted so absurd a proposition as that anything might arise without a cause.” (Feb. 1754).

    So, if the first two premises are true, that 1. Something exists and 2. Nothing does not produce something, then a rather astounding conclusion logically follows…

    3. Something must have always existed.

    Skeptic: “Why’s that?”

    Okay, well, let’s walk back through this. Something exists. Nothing does not produce something, then something must have always existed.

    Why must something have always existed? To have brought the “something” that now exists (in premise 1) into existence. Why? Because premise number two is true (Nothing does not produce something).

    Skeptic: “Why does that something have to be eternal? Aren’t you just assuming the eternality of that something that brought something into existence?”

    Not at all. Stay with me on this. There is a reason why that something (no. 3) must be eternal. To say that the thing (in premise no. 3) did not always exist would be to say that it was finite. Right?

    If that thing (in premise no. 3) was finite, that means it had a beginning. If it had a beginning we are back at our start. How did that thing (premise no. 3) begin? Did nothing create something? No, that’s impossible. Nothing can’t do anything.

    Anything that begins to exist must have a cause. If we deny this we are saying that nothing produced something from nothing and by nothing. But this is absurd. So we are left with the only other option and that is that thing in point no. 3 must have always existed.

    Let’s continue…

    4. The universe has not always existed.

    In 1948, a theory known as the Steady State Theory, was set forth, that proposed that the universe was eternal. It stated that the universe has always been. “If this theory is correct” the critics of Christianity said, “there is no need for a Creator.” Well, the theory sounded good on paper for the atheist for a while. But the scientific evidence against it has since demolished the theory.

    Numerous evidences from the field of astronomy now overwhelmingly point to the fact that the universe actually began to exist a finite time ago in an event when all the physical space, time, matter, and energy
    in the universe came into being.

    And that is exactly what the Bible affirms, that the universe had a beginning. “In the beginning God created the heavens and the earth” (Gen. 1:1).

    Let me share with you just 2 facts of science that deal a fatal deathblow to the theory of an eternal universe. The first blow to this theory that universe is eternal is…

    A. THE MOTION OF THE GALAXIES

    Prior to the 1920’s, scientists had always assumed that the universe as a whole was stationary. [Of course they acknowledged that there was movement of planets in solar systems, etc.]

    But in 1929 an alarming thing happened. An astronomer named Edwin Hubble discovered that the light from distant galaxies appeared to be redder than it should. The startling conclusion to which Hubble was led was that the light is redder because the universe is growing apart; it is expanding! When the source of incoming light is moving away from an object the light that you see is shifted toward the red end of the spectrum. The light of the galaxies was redder because they are moving away from us. But here is the interesting part: Hubble not only showed that the universe is expanding, but that it is expanding the same in all directions. Scientists have concluded that the galaxies in the universe are not stationary but are expanding further and further away from each other from what appears to be some stationary point.

    Imagine that I was to draw a bunch of dots on a balloon that represented galaxies and then blow up the balloon. If you were to suck the air back out, or let’s say rewind the film, go back in time—what would happen? The dots would converge, i.e. get closer to one another. The same is true with our universe. If you go back in time scientists say that the stars would converge into a singular space, where they exploded into being:

    This explosion or beginning of the universe is often referred to as, you know the name:

    “THE BIG BANG.” We call it Genesis 1:1!! It’s incredible that the scientific evidence that helps establish Big Bang theory also helps verify what the Christian theist has always believed: That the universe actually had a beginning!!

    Genesis 1:1
    “In the beginning, God created the heavens…”

    A second blow to the theory that the universe is eternal comes from the facts behind…

    B. THE SECOND LAWS OF THERMODYNAMICS

    [The first law says that the actual amount of energy in the universe remains constant—it doesn’t change.]

    The Second Law of Thermodynamics, is one of the best, most established laws in all of science. In fact, there is no recorded experiment in the history of science that contradicts it. It states that: the amount of useable energy in any closed system (which the universe is) is decreasing. In other words, the useable energy in the universe is dying out like the batteries in a flashlight.

    Scientists acknowledge that the sun can not burn forever, and that even our galaxy itself will one day, if left to itself, burn up and die out. So we reason that if the Second Law of Thermodynamics is true for all closed systems, and it is, then it is true for the universe as a whole. The universe according to the atheist is a gigantic closed system, since to them it is all there is and there is nothing outside it. This means that the universe is currently running out of useable energy.

    If it is running out of useable energy, then it cannot be eternal, for a finite amount of energy (no matter how large the quantity.) could never have brought the universe through an eternity of time.

    Flashlight Illustration: Let’s say you stumbled upon this flashlight and you’re curious how long it has been burning. So you do a little investigation. Through your investigation you discover that the batteries are going down hill. They are running out of energy. You turn to a scientist standing nearby and ask him: “How long do you think the flashlight’s been burning?” Now, what if he was to tell you: “It’s always been on. It’s been lit like this and burning like this forever.”

    Hunh? Would you believe that? Of course not. There’s a problem with that isn’t there?

    Batteries with a finite amount of energy (seen in the fact that they are steadily running out of energy) could never have kept the light burning for an eternal amount of time. It would have run out of batteries trillions of years ago!! So it is with the universe. The amount of useable energy is steadily decreasing, thus proving it impossible that it has been burning for all eternity. So, it is scientific discoveries like…

    1. The Motion of the Galaxies

    2. The Second Law of Thermodynamics

    (and other discoveries like the background radiation echo discovered by Penzias and Wilson)

    …that have blown the Steady State Theory into smithereens.

    Now, if my premises are all true:

    1. Something exists.

    2. Nothing does not produce something.

    3. Something must have always existed.

    4. The universe has not always existed

    …then a conclusion can be validly drawn from these premises.

    5. There must be an eternal power beyond the universe that caused the universe to come into existence.

    Do you think this is a sound argument thus far? I believe it is! The whole argument could come crashing down, if even just one of the premises could be proven to be false. Causing the argument to crash wouldn’t prove that God doesn’t exist, it would just prove that the argument is not valid. Let’s take it a bit further.

    6. Intelligent life exists in the universe.

    I take that to be self-evident. This also seems to be undeniable. Anybody who would say that there is not intelligent life in the universe would be uttering an intelligent statement from an intelligent being.

    To understand any of this study this far (even if you disagreed with what I was saying) would prove that this sixth premise is true…for it has taken a great degree of intelligence to understand the thousands of combinations of syllables that I have been uttering.

    So this premise is undeniably true as well.

    Let’s take it further.

    7. It takes an intelligent living being to create an intelligent living being.

    How could a material, inanimate, unintelligent, unconscious force produce on intelligent living, breathing being? It takes a living, intelligent being to create a living, intelligent being. Non-life does not produce life. You could leave the barren side of a mountain exposed to wind, rain, the forces of nature, chance and millions of years of time and you would never get a Mount Rushmore, let alone a living, breathing human being. Why? It takes intelligence. You need intelligent intervention.

    It would take great intelligence to create a robot that operates like a human, and even more so, it takes intelligence to create a real human being.

    8. Therefore there must be an intelligent, living, eternal power, beyond the universe, that created the universe.

    That intelligent, living, eternal power, beyond the universe that created the universe is God.

    On the other hand, the theory of evolution does not stand up under close scrutiny with known scientific facts.

    You think that creationist scientists aren’t smart? Think again.

    Here are just a few of the men who gave us modern science who believed in God:

    Nicholas Copernicus
    Sir Francis Bacon
    Johannes Kepler
    Galileo Galilei
    Rene Descartes
    Blaise Pascal
    Isaac Newton
    Robert Boyle
    Michael Faraday
    William Thomson Kelvin
    Max Planck
    Albert Einstein
    James Clerk Maxwell

    I suggest you think a little about your theories before you post them on this blog.

  46. duke of prunes says - Posted: February 15, 2015

    “That is known as macroevolution.”

    Wrong. You have no idea what you are talking about.

    Your proof is cute. Completely invalid, based on some logical fallacies and leaps of “faith”.

    “It takes an intelligent living being to create an intelligent living being.”
    wrong. You are trying to frame the logic so that only your conclusion can be the only one left. This is psuedo-philosophy, and you are engaging in pseudoscience. All of your ‘there must be’ statement are supported by anything.

    And your understanding the second law of thermodynamics is way off.

    “I suggest you think a little about your theories before you post them on this blog.”
    You should work on developing a basic understanding of science and philosophy before you expect to be taken seriously.
    I’ve read all this BS before. You are rehashing ‘proofs’ that have been invalidated countless times. Your ‘philosophy’ works on children and people who are uneducated.

    How old is the earth?

  47. fromform says - Posted: February 15, 2015

    duke: the !?! feature on this blog is apparently a logical fallacy incarnate, and should not be taken seriously. that’s why i backed out of the “debate”…

  48. nature bats last says - Posted: February 15, 2015

    YAWN

  49. ?!? says - Posted: February 15, 2015

    You might consider providing some supporting evidence to support your outlandish claims. Realize that what you believe is that you came from rocks. My proof is disproved? Show me how.

    It’s entertaining to watch the atheists desperately trying to save the last remnant of their ridiculous theory as it swirls down the toilet with the rest of their communist BS. Meanwhile, creationists stand on solid ground, as they have for thousands of years…

    Fromform: I think it is far more likely that you backed out of the debate because you found yourself not capable to debate on this subject because of the distinct lack of evidence on your side. I applaud you for realizing that you have no grounds on which to debate, you are clearly smarter than Rock and Prune, who don’t know when to stop pressing ridiculous ideas and making themselves look like fools.

    “The fool hath said in his heart, There is no God. They are corrupt, they have done abominable works, there is none that doeth good.” Psalm 14:1

    Carry on…
    Want to have a yawning contest nature?
    YAWN

  50. A.B. says - Posted: February 16, 2015

    Let’s look at past predictions of the “climatologists”:

    Global Cooling?

    Americans who lived through the 1960s and ’70s may remember the dire global-cooling predictions that were hyped and given great credibility by Newsweek, Time, Life, National Geographic, and numerous other mainstream media outlets. According to the man-made global-cooling theories of the time, billions of people should be dead by now owing to cooling-linked crop failures and starvation.

    United Nations “Climate Refugees”

    In 2005, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) warned that imminent sea-level rises, increased hurricanes, and desertification caused by “man-made global warming” would lead to massive population disruptions. In a handy map, the organization highlighted areas that were supposed to be particularly vulnerable in terms of producing “climate refugees.” Especially at risk were regions such as the Caribbean and low-lying Pacific islands, along with coastal areas.

    The 2005 UNEP predictions claimed that, by 2010, some 50 million “climate refugees” would be frantically fleeing from those regions of the globe. However, not only did the areas in question fail to produce a single “climate refugee,” by 2010, population levels for those regions were actually still soaring. In many cases, the areas that were supposed to be producing waves of “climate refugees” and becoming uninhabitable turned out to be some of the fastest-growing places on Earth.

    No More Snow?

    For well over a decade now, climate alarmists have been claiming that snow would soon become a thing of the past. In March 2000, for example, “senior research scientist” David Viner, working at the time for the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) at the University of East Anglia, told the U.K. Independent that within “a few years,” snowfall would become “a very rare and exciting event” in Britain. “Children just aren’t going to know what snow is,” he was quoted as claiming in the article, headlined “Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past.”

    The very next year, snowfall across the United Kingdom increased by more than 50 percent. In 2008, perfectly timed for a “global warming” legislation debate in Parliament, London saw its first October snow since 1934 — or possibly even 1922, according to the U.K. Register. “It is unusual to have snow this early,” a spokesperson for the alarmist U.K. Met office admitted to The Guardian newspaper. By December of 2009, London saw its heaviest levels of snowfall in two decades. In 2010, the coldest U.K. winter since rec­ords began a century ago blanketed the islands with snow.

    Arctic Ice

    Perhaps nowhere have the alarmists’ predictions been proven as wrong as at the Earth’s poles. In 2007, 2008, and 2009, Al Gore, the high priest for a movement described by critics as the “climate cult,” publicly warned that the North Pole would be “ice-free” in the summer by around 2013 because of alleged “man-made global warming.”

    Speaking to an audience in Germany five years ago, Gore alleged that “the entire North Pole ice cap will disappear in five years.” “Five years,” Gore said again, in case anybody missed it the first time, is “the period of time during which it is now expected to disappear.”

  51. ?!? Tool says - Posted: February 16, 2015

    Wow, ?!? Is absolute narcissisist to the nth degree.

  52. ?!? says - Posted: February 17, 2015

    nar·cis·sis·tic
    ˌnärsəˈsistik/Submit
    adjective
    having an excessive or erotic interest in oneself and one’s physical appearance.
    “a narcissistic actress”
    synonyms: vain, self-loving, self-admiring, self-absorbed, self-obsessed, conceited, self-centered, self-regarding, egotistic, egotistical, egoistic; informalfull of oneself
    “she was never happy in the narcissistic life that her press agent and manager had crafted for her”
    relating to narcissism.
    “narcissistic personality disorder”

    Explain how defending one’s beliefs is narcissistic, or stop using big words you don’t know the meaning of.

  53. duke of prunes says - Posted: February 17, 2015

    “Thou hast also taken thy fair jewels of my gold and of my silver, which I had given thee, and madest to thyself images of men, and didst commit whoredom with them”
    Ezekial 16:17

    While we are on the subject of bible quotes, this one seems relevant.

    One of the most efficient ways to show the world how dumb you are is bringing up Nazis randomly.

    Global cooling was more popular in the media, and a small part of the scientific thought in the 70s.

    puncuation you never answered my question: How old is the earth? We need to know what intellectual level you are operating on here.

  54. ?!? says - Posted: February 17, 2015

    Your quote is incorrect. It goes like this:
    “And thou tookest thy beautiful vessels, of my gold, and my silver, which I gave thee, and thou madest thee images of men, and hast committed fornication with them.”

    Explain how this is relevant, Mr. religious genius. Of course you must know this stuff MUCH better than me. I’d be happy to talk about bible quotes, or any other topic if you want.

    How old is the earth? The evolutionists love asking that question! Most likely between 6 and 10 thousand years old. Before you deny it, provide your evidence, and it better not be radio carbon dating, or potassium argon dating, or any of those methods that involve radical assumptions.

    “We need to know what intellectual level you are operating on here” Certainly higher than yours! You’re doing a poor job being a know-it-all. I know, losing sucks, doesn’t it?

  55. Isee says - Posted: February 21, 2015

    Here’s all that matters to me. A learned geologist told us during a talk out by Kirkwood that we are now at 400ppb of CO2. The last time (from ice coring) it was only 200ppb all the ice on earth disappeared. The ONLY thing that hasn’t happened yet is us reaching the point of equilibrium. That is when the ice has yet to completely disappear but is certain to do so, based on the level of CO2 in the atmosphere. We won’t be here to witness it but this area will eventually look just like Baja California. Enjoy the season.
    To Admin: I’d support you if you deleted all the comments that don’t pertain to the article. Thanks

  56. Isee says - Posted: February 21, 2015

    FYI Everyone- The top 20 climate scientists on the planet all died in the Malaysian airliner that disappeared from the face of the earth. They were on their way to a climate-change summit in Australia. I do believe this was a successful conspiracy to get rid of that amount of knowledge on the subject. There are a couple of families in the world that have too much to lose to let this business of climate change get in the way of their profit taking.

  57. Joe says - Posted: February 21, 2015

    I believe somewhere in America during the last century there was a geographical region know as “the Dustbowl” where thousands of farms went under and thousands more left for greener pastures because the drought was so bad. Where is that dustbowl now? Did not last forever did it?